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Housing sales tumble across Canada

LORI MCLEOD

From Friday's Globe and Mail

Latest comment posted at 3:40 PM EST 17/04/08

Slowdown in Toronto, surge of new listings in Western Canada reduce sales of existing homes by 7.1 per cent in the first quarter, CREA says ...Read the full article

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  1. S OConnell from Toronto, Canada writes: I love that the CREA can put a positive spin on pretty much anything, only thing missing from the article is the usual spin from the head of a real estate company saying everything is great and not to worry.
  2. Jay Dubya from TO, Canada writes: Can't wait for the crash so I can jump into the market.

    No reason for house prices to rise so fast over the past 5 years except for speculation and greed.
  3. J Knight from Canada writes: To the poster above, your commentary is accurate/fair/reality. In the broad sense everyone is a salesperson; however, if your occupation is a salesperson (real estate, vehicles, etc) generally you do not get paid. Most times these individuals do not have sufficient product knowledge and could care less once a sale has been finalized. People such as this and there are many are reflective of the grade twelve mentality embedded in the last century somewhere and this is simply just not good enough.
  4. Jack F from Canada writes: Funny how they didn't mention the new Toronto land transfer tax having anything to do with slowing sales in the GTA. That would have required the G&M to actually point out a fault with their golden boy David Miller.
  5. Don Quixote from the sunny Banana Belt, Ont., Canada writes: As to expect: Blinded from all the run-up in house prices over the last 10 years, blinded by real estate floggers auctioning off for higher then the actual asking price, the 'lemmings' now run all on the market at the same time - diluting it in turn.

    Good for buyers now, still, don't rush headlong into it yet, the real bloodletting probably unfolds by spring of 2009 when the new government takes hold by our southern neighbour and all the accumulated dirty wash will be aired....

    We are not as rich as we think.....
  6. Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: Anyone else notice that the CREA has quietly dropped the 'too snowy in Toronto to sell homes' canard they were peddling just a month ago? ('Snow blamed as housing resales drop' G&M online, March 14, 2008)

    They don't embarrass easily, but apparently they do embarrass after all.
  7. J Lee from Canada writes: This is totaly UNcanadian. For house prices to not increase by double digit percentages. IT must be against some law. How can this be so when I'm still getting lots of mail, flyers, calls and advice that it is the best time EVER to buy. Buy now and save. Buy now and prosper. But it has made me think about my neighbourhood, where the local elementary schools are slated for closure because families with kids can't afford to even drive around the streets. And even if one family with kids could afford it, why move here when there are no other kids just us old f*ts.
  8. Ian E from Vancouver, Canada writes: Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: 'Anyone else notice that the CREA has quietly dropped the 'too snowy in Toronto to sell homes' canard they were peddling just a month ago?' Exactly, Trevor. But now the drop in sales will be due to the weather being too nice. Then we'll have some long weekends, and nobody ever buys a house over a long weekend. Summer is too hot, of course, and then the back to school rush will be a huge distraction. And Grey Cup. But the housing market remains fundamentally very strong, just with more 'balance' as prices settle at a permanently high plateau. Exciting new financing innovations like 50 year mortgages will help disguise the lack of affordability, allowing first time buyers to opportunity to jump into the market and have the pride of ownership. More and more people will be able to put the shame of renting behind them, and with it all the fear and uncertainty over what to do with all the money they're saving. Remember that everyone wants to live here (wherever you are right now and/or are considering buying a home), particularly all the rich baby boomers. And then there is the land thing - they're not making any more of it you know. Finally, remember that real estate only goes up. Disregard history, and all that silly business down south. Please. Remember it's a great time to buy, or sell, a home! Seriously.
  9. R Miller from Halifax, Canada writes: Housing prices are still fairly affordable in Atlantic Canada... Plus I don't think that we have had any snow here since January...

    Get ready for your bubbles to burst...

    Cheers.
  10. Justin M from vancouver, Canada writes: this country's housing prices have become so over inflated, I have no choice but to move either to the east coast or to Europe. Im a 23 year old university student, but I have chance of ever owning my own home in vancouver at the current prices. I like BC may lose some of their best young minds to emigration to Europe and Asia.
  11. Pete Kauchak, Green Tory from Cascadia, Canada writes: Jay Dubya from TO, Canada writes: Can't wait for the crash so I can jump into the market.

    No reason for house prices to rise so fast over the past 5 years except for speculation and greed.

    So are you renting now?
  12. Simon Chang from Toronto, Canada writes: I have not seen a For Sale sign in my neighbourhood for a little while. I live in the Beaches area of Toronto.

    With the increasing migration of empty nesters from the burbs to the core of Toronto, one would expect more closures of schools. Toronto is becoming a fortress of gentrification with the lower income earners being pushed further and further out.
  13. Dan Shortt from Toronto, Canada writes: Hmmm. Home prices continue to rise, while the number of sales are now falling. Sounds like a correlation.

    But just remember .... a correlation does not imply a causal relationship! No Sireee.
  14. Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: I see the headline has now changed to the much more candid assessment: 'Housing boom 'officially over''.

    Not surprisingly, this little kernel of honesty came from somewhere other than the CREA.
  15. Smooth Fan from Canada writes: One poster had it bang on. The MAIN reason for slow down of sales was that wonderful Land Transfer Tax Miller and his minions instilled. The city of Toronto decides to raise taxes without making any sort of cuts, result? Sales slow down and property values slow down as well.

    Unbelievable! They fail to point out that in Dec, Toronto had a record number of sales, why? You guessed it, the new tax! Bad weather is an understatement, we were BURRIED in snow this year, who wants to sell/move when you can't even get out of your drive way?

    I'd say wait till spring/summer sales numbers for Toronto to come out, then decide if the market is going to 'crash'...I doubt it.
  16. Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: OK, seriously, get over the Miller land transfer tax thing already. It's hardly causing the glut of supply in Van, Edm and Cgy.

    Sheesh.
  17. sudhir jain from Canada writes: How can one say that the boom is over when the prices are rising faster than inflation and average incomes. Ny daughters can't afford to buy now any more than thy could any time over last five years.
  18. H M from Canada writes: I think I am in one of the 'select prairie locales'. Steady stream of people looking for a mortgage, houses up, up and away in price.

    I had an offer on my home, bought in November, for more than $30k above what I bought it for. It's not for sale. Three properties on the market have sold in 24 hours for more than the asking price.

    Mind you, in this place, buying is still a better deal than renting at 1000 per month.
  19. ACR Vancouver from Canada writes: Lower housing prices? Hmmmm... Not seeing it yet around Kitsilano, west side Vancouver, believe me. Many on the sidelines are waiting for the anticipated hissssssssss as the housing bubble deflates in good ole Vancouver.. Hope we don't have to wait until after the Olympics.
  20. Pete Kauchak, Green Tory from Cascadia, Canada writes: Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: OK, seriously, get over the Miller land transfer tax thing already. It's hardly causing the glut of supply in Van, Edm and Cgy.

    Sheesh.

    Sorry but Miller is the kind of mayor that drives people to move AWAY from Toronto. If another credible candidate came along, Miller would be out on the street.
  21. Robert Rivers from ToFar, France writes: Just a strange thought to throw out to the general public, I was witness to the recent building boom and housing boom in Toronto (southern Ontario), I made a quick connection to other such booms in recent and ancient history (I study anthropology). I found that these correspond to a 20-30 year cycle related to biological growth of a human population... the next building affect of human populations globally. HAHAHA there is a little useless information for your day.
  22. Pete Kauchak, Green Tory from Cascadia, Canada writes: Robert Rivers from ToFar, France writes: Just a strange thought to throw out to the general public, I was witness to the recent building boom and housing boom in Toronto (southern Ontario), I made a quick connection to other such booms in recent and ancient history (I study anthropology). I found that these correspond to a 20-30 year cycle related to biological growth of a human population... the next building affect of human populations globally. HAHAHA there is a little useless information for your day.

    Expect a housing crash when the boomers start dying off. There will be a glut of empty homes on the market.
  23. newguy vancouver from VanCity, Canada writes: I have been wondering for a while when the mainstream media would be forced to report on the declines we have being seeing. Its funny, all this data (and much more data they are still avoiding talking about) has been written in detail on the 'Lets Imagine there is a Housing Crash' blog.

    As we know, real estate only increases in value with inflation - no more, no less. Therefore, every boom inevitably ends with a bust. The larger the run up, the farther the fall down.

    A lot of people are going to lose their shirts over this one, especially in Vancouver.
  24. J L from Toronto, Canada writes: Someone please tell me where in Toronto things have slowed down? Finding a good house without competing for it is virtually impossible.
  25. Nucking Futs from Canada writes: BC: Gas at $1.25/litre. Rent is astronomical. Food prices are increasing. Sure there are lots of jobs here, but most are low paying ($10/hour jobs). Not sure how the prices of houses keep going up... My guess is: zero down mortgages, 40 year amortization periods, and most of all real estate agencies spewing propaganda.
  26. Dick Nails from Canada writes: The land xfer tax is not the problem. Go here and do some figurin' and learn something http://www.royallepage.ca/CMSTemplates/Calculators/land_transfer.aspx

    BC has the highest tax and AB the lowest. BC has the highest prices and AB the next....

    WRT to price declines... big deal. Only the renters are cawing. If you think it is a good time to buy, buy. If not, wait for the next flat spot. Regardless, for renters, it was better last year and the year before. Waiting will only increase your costs.
  27. bill k from Canada writes: Look at the fear of the young ones who cling to the lies of everything will be ok. Those who bought in the last one to three years will soon be underwater. Many flippers who bought condo's are sweating as they wait for their condo to be completed but by that time they flip it it will cost them tears worth tens of thousands of dollars. Also the RE agents know the truth and fear being forced into getting a real job. I waited in 88-93 to buy a house and when the time came I bought. Many back then said 'this time is different' just like today but the end result will be the same which is the loss of their home plus savings. POP....was was that? The Canadian housing market.
  28. My eyes are open, Are yours? from Canada writes: So when can I expect my property tax bill to decline reflecting my new, lower, market value?
  29. Dick Nails from Canada writes: bill k: try a happy pill for once. You have OD'd on grumpy old man-itis and if you aren't an old man by age, you sure are by nature.
  30. Luke R from Toronto, Canada writes: Just waiting for the prices to drop. Soon, as the supply will out number the demand, sellers will have no choice but the reduce, reduce, reduce the price.
  31. J Knight from Canada writes: The next spike in housing prices will be non other than Alberta, particularly in Calgary. The total dollar value of commercial construction in Calgary equals the total of Vancouver plus Winnipeg plus Toronto. Contrary to what some brain washed people with an inferiority complex say the cost of living in Calgary is not high nor out of control. Move West as the best is yet to come.
  32. Geoff Virgo from Vancouver, BC, Canada writes: Pete Kauchak, Green Tory from Cascadia, Canada writes: 'Sorry but Miller is the kind of mayor that drives people to move AWAY from Toronto. If another credible candidate came along, Miller would be out on the street.'

    Miller may or may not be that, the point he was making is that a land transfer tax that Miller introduced to the Toronto market will not have any effect on the markets in Vancouver (who already has a higher transfer tax anyways), Edmonton or Calgary.
  33. Geoff Virgo from Vancouver, BC, Canada writes: Dick Nails from Canada writes: 'Regardless, for renters, it was better last year and the year before. Waiting will only increase your costs.'

    Keep dreaming Dick, this is only true if you expect the market to remain steady or increase. In a market situation like what most of Canada, especially Vancouver, it's foolish to think that it will maintain it's value which inevitably leads to a glut of sellers and a large market correction. As that correction is inevitable, regardless of what the ever-so-knowledgeable 'pundits' say about the Vancouver market, waiting will in fact decrease your costs as long as you wait for the correct moment to buy in.

    In the current market rent costs less than the carrying costs and expenses owning (and that doesn't include your mortage payment) and allows you to keep the investment principle which you would otherwise have tied into the property liquid. That principle can also be placed into other areas that will yield far more over time than the standard inflation adjusted 1 - 3% that real estate traditionally gives. No, the smart money is either staying out, or selling out, of the Canadian real estate market for the time being. The same pattern is happening in most of the western world, what's happening in the US right now is just the beginning.
  34. Smooth Fan from toronto, Canada writes: Trevor Fenton: I AM talking about Toronto, because I LIVE in toronto. What do I care about property prices in the rest of the country? My comments are specific to my city. Thanks!
  35. Andrew E from Canada writes: Jack F from Canada writes: Funny how they didn't mention the new Toronto land transfer tax having anything to do with slowing sales in the GTA. >> Land Transfer tax in Ontario is a joke. Here's correspondance between me and a Civil Servant, and my future MPP: 1) to the Minister of Revenue: re: Ontario land transfer tax I noticed that the land transfer tax on a $240000 residential property is about $2100. The land transfer tax on a property of the same value in Alberta is $275. I don't now why transferring ownership of land costs 7 times more in Ontario than it does in Alberta, but I'm sure there's a valid reason. Can I please get a breakdown of the services provided by the province that are covered by this tax? I'd really like to see something along the lines of 'Mr. X, of the $2100, $500 goes to....'. 2) reply: Thank-you for your feedback to the Ontario Ministry of Revenue. Please be advised that revenues collected under the land transfer tax program are deposited into the Ontario Government's Consolidated Revenue Fund to be used for a wide variety of programs and services such as roads and highways, health care, hospitals, education, social services, provincial parks and the environment. Motor Fuels, Tobacco and Land Taxes Section 3) Sent to my MPP: Mr Martiniuk, I'm a soon to be constituent of yours, and have got to tell you that the deflection and obfuscation in this response from a civil servant is galling and frustrating.... though not entirely surprising. I mean, did this faceless and nameless drone even read the question? In other words, is this bureaucrat saying 'I don't know, but rather than finding out, I'll blow this guy off with a standard one-liner.'? What 'added value' does Ontario offer for a 7-fold increase over another (albeit more fiscally Conservative) jurisdiction, in the cost of a simple land transfer tax? How does Ontario justify this rapacious incremental expense to the cost of acquiring property?
  36. aniphylactic shock troops from Canada writes: There may be a temporary loss of nerve among buyer who are new to the tax in Toronto, but over the long term it just gets built into the price of the transaction, like real estate fees. BC's had an outrageous Property Transfer Tax for years and it did nothing to slow down sales. Not sure what rents are doing elsewhere, but the past five years have been golden for renters out here. The cost of renting v the cost of owning the same house has never been so much in favour of renters. To put it another way, the average $600,000 bungalow with a view of the neigbhour's garbage pile would cost about $4000 a month to carry. You could live in a penthouse suite overlooking the ocean for $4000 a month. And if you bought that $600,000 house expecting your equity rise to justify your poor investment, a 4% increase will barely cover your transaction costs when you sell. Spring will bring hundreds of new listings each day in the major centres. Of those, some will have to sell because of job loss or other circumstances. As Days on Market climb, some people who have to sell will panic and cut their prices so that they can sell at whatever price they can get. And that will be like sawing off a leg on a three-legged stool. The market will collapse. I'm a realtor. And I've been warning people of this eventuality for five years. And nobody listened. So don't whine to me about hype. Look in your own greedy mirror.
  37. Smooth Fan from toronto, Canada writes: J L from Toronto, Canada: You're right, prices are extremely high right now and affordability is low in Toronto, even in the 905 area. Many peopl are renting right now due to the prices and I don't blame them. Dick Nails from Canada: Once again, I live in Toronto and can't speak for the rest of the country. The data in TORONTO showed an extremely high increase in sales in Dec, followed by a sharp decline after the tax kicked in IN TORONTO. The LTT went up by 2 % so for a condo that costs $200k, thats another 4000 $ you have to come up with. Many people buy with very little money down 0-10% is very common (family is also in real estate so I know this to be a fact) and not everybody has rich families to give them their downpayment. So yes, a 2% increase DOES slow down housing sales in this city, the sales stats speak for themselves. Unless you think everyone suddenly lost their jobs come January..... The data in TORONTO is VERY clear people, sales dropped like crazy after the LTT kicked in. Now add in that terrible winter we had and boom, you have this so-called crisis. Reports like this don't tell the whole story, take a look at the Ontario Real Esate Association information for more Ontario / Toronto specific data. So again my two cents are wait till we get the data for spring/summer if it's still declining at a rapid rate (which I doubt) then we can start thinking of a true slowdown, 1 quarter is NOT enough data for us Torontonians given the recent tax hike.
  38. Yvonne Wackernagel from Woodville, Canada writes: Do you think that the fact that 146,000 jobs were lost in Ontario over the last couple of years makes a difference. How many people with one unemployed spouse can afford to carry the 40 year mortgages on some of those very spacious homes PLUS the taxes PLUS the fire insurance PLUS the maintenance and security systems, PLUS two car payments and insurance and maintenance on the cars, PLUS the heating bills, the hydro bills, the telephone and internet bills, plus the sports fees and equipment, etc. etc. etc. Oh my, I forgot the credit card debt.
  39. Rick C from Canada writes: J Knight from Canada writes: 'The next spike in housing prices will be non other than Alberta, particularly in Calgary. The total dollar value of commercial construction in Calgary equals the total of Vancouver plus Winnipeg plus Toronto. Contrary to what some brain washed people with an inferiority complex say the cost of living in Calgary is not high nor out of control. Move West as the best is yet to come.'

    We are seeing a mild pullback while the investors leave the market; prices have reached a level where it isn't practical to cash flow a new rental property.

    Once that shakes itself out we'll be back to the modest gains we were seeing 3-4 years ago.
  40. Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: Smooth Fan: 'I AM talking about Toronto, because I LIVE in toronto. What do I care about property prices in the rest of the country? My comments are specific to my city. Thanks!'

    I AM talking about other parts of the country because I LIVE in another part of the country and this PAPER is not ONLY about TORonTO. The story, IN FACT, talks about many OTHER cities. And believe it OR not, Toronto's petty and tiresome internal squabbles DO NOT constitute the reason for an almost nationwide glut of housing for sale. THAnks!
  41. Rick C from Canada writes: Justin M from vancouver, Canada writes: 'this country's housing prices have become so over inflated, I have no choice but to move either to the east coast or to Europe.'

    LOL...you think you'll find cheaper housing in Europe? That's the best joke of the day so far.

    You're 23. Don't worry you'll be able to buy a house even out west.
  42. Thernan Riekal from Canada writes: You want to get something at a reasonable price? Wait a few months and see if this so called housing bust is for real. If it is, you can get a condo for a very reasonable price as all those real estate agents who also work as flippers by scooping up the best units and reselling them find themselves saddled with mortgage payments when they cannot unload the properties. They will sell at or near cost just to get rid of it.
  43. Eric Velez from Toronto, Canada writes: Sorry folks, Toronto remains the financial capital of Canada, so pay attention to what happens here. It is very true that Mayor Miller is trying to tax property speculators from making any sort of profit from a quick flip in the GTA, which I personally believe is an attack on our personal free enterprise in the housing market and he should remove this lame tax IMMEDIATELY!!!. We already have a land transfer tax we give to the government which is a huge source of income - when will Miller and his band of cronnies stop this madness. He lost my vote big time over this - I just wish that more people would let Miller know that this tax is madness - tax the corporations not hard working Torontonians...
  44. Anti Elvis from Calgary, Alberta, Canada writes: Well Smooth Fan, as a former resident of Toronto, I can't begin to tell you how tiresome it gets to hear about 'poor Toronto'. When things are great in Toronto it's 'we're the centre of the universe' When things get bad, it's nothing but whining & then out comes the blame game...how Harper or someone in Ottawa is screwing you guys over.

    The fact is, Toronto house prices ARE affordable compared Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Red Deer, Edmonton, Saskatoon, etc. What's not affordable is the high levels of taxation and excessive levels of government that hinder business from growing.

    Toronto's a deal...least from a housing cost standpoint.
  45. True Grit from Canada writes: My eyes are open, Are yours?, your tax bill will not go down to reflect your lower property value. Municipal tax collection is 'revenue neutral'. This means that the city has to collect a certain amount of money every year to fund its' services. In a falling market, the 'mill rate', which is the percentage charged on your property value, will merely increase. So if your property dropped 10k from last year, the city still needs to collect the eqivalent tax dollar amount on the 10k depriciation, or make spending cuts to make up the shortfall. Either way, you pay a price.
  46. Theodore Majority from Ottawa, Canada writes: My eyes are open - your tax bill won't go down, nor should it. The total amount of tax paid is determined by what the city needs. It's only the proportion that changes based on assessed value. So, if house values go down proportionately, your tax will stay the same. If you'd like to hope that your value plummets faster than the average, you might see tax savings - oddly, few people seem to hope for that. Good luck.
  47. Smooth Fan from toronto, Canada writes: Eric: You're bang on with your points, I totally agree with you. I don't know about taxing corporations, I believe proper fiscal management is in order, which obviously Miller is CLEARLY incapable of doing. He made ZERO cuts, but introduced a new tax AND property taxes are GOING UP. For what? Do we get better services?? NO! It's just to balance their books because spending is out of control. Anti Elvis: Don't make broad generalizations about Toronto. Toronto currently is a disaster. You don't live here as you said, the city is practically bankrupt! I'm not going to address your other juvenile remarks. As for the housing in other cities, I totally agree that housing prices are EXTREMELY high in Alberta (thats the only place I've read up on personlly) so yes housing is generally expensive in the country. Therefore, an adjustment was bound to happen at some point in time, I won't argue there. As for Toronto being a deal, I disagree. In downtown toronto a 1 Bedroom Solarium in a RESALE building (over 10 years old) goes for 300k. That is NOT cheap by any means. Also, I know that people get paid handsomely in Alberta esp if you work in the oil industry. So the salary levels could offset some of those housing costs. Remember, prices become high because of the demand to buy property? How do you get demand? By having a good income level. Our country has been performing very well against other g8 countries for the last 8-10 years, Paul Martin as finance minister can take the credit for our economy doing so well. The adjustment in price will happen, but I'm personally not convinced of a crash (at least in Toronto). Again, I'll repeat, let's wait for another quarter or two before we make hasty conclusions. Just my two cents.
  48. Hydrogen Bob from Toronto, Canada writes: If stock prices increased into record territory but the volume of shares traded decreased, would we say that the 'stock boom' was over. The housing boom being over is a misleading conclusion and an incorrect headline if prices are still advancing. However it would be fair to say that the Real Estate sales boom has ended, which negatively affects Real Estate sales industry. Canadians care about Real Estate from the perspective of prices. Unfortunately Real Estate is reported to Canadians from the perspective of transactions, as the Real Estate sales industry has top notch PR, and our media is only happy to report news from their narrow perspective, not from the perspective of the majority of readers.
  49. chris ohenry from Toronto, Canada writes: I don't understand this urgency to own a house in this country....sure, when it's a sure-fire investment opportunity (i.e when markets are clearly heading up) then I see it makes sense. But why give your life away to a bank simply to own the house you are living in? If you don't have a good sum of cash, and i'm talking 30% of the value, you shouldn't be looking to buy a house.

    My wife and I are in our 30's, make good money, but still the thought of taking out a loan to afford a 450-750,000 house in Toronto is beyond comprehension.
    I much rather pay 2000$ rent, have zero debts and live an overall less stressed lifestyle that everyone else enslaved to the banks for 30 or 40 years.

    Sure, you 'lose' money, in theory...but you gain freedom. And you don't spend money what you don't have.
  50. steve allan from Canada writes: Falling sales always precedes falling prices. That's next and don't let any bank-employed economist tell you otherwise.

    The baby boomers are now out of the housing market and the demand for homes will not only level off, it will begin to fall over the next 10 years. Expect to see some dramatic price declines in some markets over the next decade.
  51. Smooth Fan from toronto, Canada writes: Bob: I think the bottom line is to look at sales PRICES in the next two quarters and then make some conclusions. As a property owner I don't care that the number of sales decreased, I only care about the value of the properties in my geographic region. Decrease in the number of sales can be attributed to many things (i.e. what I've been posting about Toronto).

    If sales in your neighbourhood start dropping in price (which they might) over the summer - which is typically the months with the most sales, THEN you can start thinking about the the market adjusting....Here's another piece of free advice. DON'T SELL your property if prices fall (unless you can't afford to keep it). When ppl realize that real estate is a long term 5-10 year committment, then people won't be losing in the real estate market. Pay down your mortage, hang on to it and when you sell your principle residence you PAY NO TAX (unlike stocks and other investments). Not only do you get the value from the inflation of your property, you don't pay tax on it, sounds like a good deal to me.
  52. Rick C from Canada writes: Eric Velez from Toronto, Canada writes: 'Sorry folks, Toronto remains the financial capital of Canada, so pay attention to what happens here.'

    There is no denying Toronto is still the financial center of Canada; but housing prices in the big smoke have nothing to do with what's going on out west. It's meaningless to us just as Calgary's housing spike over the last 3 years was meaningless in TO.
  53. Hydrogen Bob from Toronto, Canada writes: Anti Elvis - Toronto is poorly sereved by all three levels of government. Who is to blame? The citizens of Toronto. We all have the power to vote and demand accountability from our elected officials from all three levels. Why blame Harper, the Liberals were in power for years and they did nothing for Toronto (except ensure that Bay Street and their constituents in Rosedale can not only protect their wealth but get richer faster). We put up with agencies like the TDSB and the OMB which continually screw us, but never hold the responsible politicians accountable. I love Toronto, but she is in a mess and declining fast. She will relect Liberal (and maybe some NDP) MPs and MPPs, and the usual assortment of incompetent city councillors and nothing will change - because we don't demand change, we just like to whine.
  54. Smooth Fan from toronto, Canada writes: Chris: You don't need 30% down to buy a property. As I stated earlier, you get a very good return for your primary residence. I used to rent for 3 years as well until I could put a descent make a descent downpayment. Renting is a waste of money, you get ZERO return on it. Even if your cost of living is lower, its a quality of life thing. There is a huge sense of pride and accomplishment when you buy your first home which is hard to make tangible. You could also buy a smaller property or live in a non-prime area if you can't afford the house you want now. Baby steps! e.g. a 1200 sq foot 2 bedroom condo in scar (resale - older building) goes for around $150 at Kennedy & 401. While downtown as I said earlier, you're looking at 300K-315k for a 1 1, and 340k for a 2 bedroom. 150k is very affordable for even a 1 income family of 45k.

    People want the best and biggest house today, that's not reality unfortunately, it takes time to get your dream house, start small and eventually you'll get there.
  55. Anti Elvis from Calgary, Alberta, Canada writes: Smooth Fan: I spent better than 15 years living in Toronto (the actual city)..tho I'm Albertan by birth.

    As for 'juvenile remarks', well man, you obviously have little or no knowledge of what's happening out west & why. For starters, housing prices out here are substantially higher than Toronto..as are prices for EVERYTHING. That's everything from a coffee at Tim's to the tires on your car. Oil and Gas wages tend to be high in Fort Mac, where people are making 6 figures and paying 1200 a month for a room in a house and 7 bucks a pound for fresh tomatoes. For the rest of us in Calgary or Edmonton, our wages are pretty much average & compare to Toronto (lived in both cities, so I can say that fairly).

    Where the difference lies is that I pay less tax than you. I don't pay PST. And 100% of the taxes I pay provincially is used to pay for services, unlike in Ontario where a portion goes to paying down the debt.

    In the grand scheme of things, 'Toronto' is a deal, both internationally and nationally. Just that far to many Toronto types have little or no grasp of what's actually happening past Hwy 10 on any given day. The whole 'it's so hard here, you just wouldn't understand'. Sorry man, I don't buy it. Maybe Tdot should call in the army to help with the housing prices.
  56. Mike McFae from Canada writes: That's a depressing picture of row housing. Where is it ?
  57. Yvonne Wackernagel from Woodville, Canada writes: If the value of your property goes down, it will take about three years for the assessment to kick in for you to go to appeal on the new and realistic value. I think the Provincial Govt. is now looking at making the appeal process easier.
  58. B C from Canada writes: Smooth fan, you ought to care that sales decreased. A leading indicator of prices is months of inventory. When MOI goes over 6 months, benchmark prices tend to drop.
  59. Sean L. from Toronto Center, Canada writes: 'In March, sales fell by 22 per cent year-over-year in Toronto, which accounts for one-quarter of existing home sales across the country. Last month, CREA attributed 53 per cent of the 5.6 per cent month-over-month drop in resale home sales to the softer Toronto market.'

    Thank you David Miller. Great stick handling with that tax to help jump start Ontario's recession. Maybe when you get back from China you can tell Ontario businesses about all the incentives China is offering firms to relocate their manufacturing from here to there, or we can trade vacation photos & rceipes for duck.

    Woo Hoo Vote Miller!!!
  60. hossein hajiagha from Victoria, Canada writes: when a cave man are going to run are local and federal government ,what we can except, fast go up fast go down, rich guy make so much money and low income are loser.
    government make large money when every get more expensive, more TAX.
    long live capitalism. we have so many land few people , why we so much for what we should have free?
  61. Trevor Fenton from Vancouver, Canada writes: chris ohenry: 'And you don't spend money what you don't have.'

    Heresy! Being hopelessly awash in debt is to the 2000's what church attendance was to the 50's. Speculators and realtors (yes, with a small 'r', get over yourselves) are today's Jim and Tammy Faye.

    Buying in a hyper-inflated market is what you do so that you can relentlessly parrot the words 'pride of ownership', whatever the hell that means. But then you and your like-minded friends can get together in one of your 40-year-mortgaged houses of cards, nodding together in earnest agreement because once you've bought you can't bear the thought that you were wrong ('oh, my job is recession-proof...').
  62. Sean L. from Toronto Center, Canada writes: 'Justin M from vancouver, Canada writes: this country's housing prices have become so over inflated, I have no choice but to move either to the east coast or to Europe. Im a 23 year old university student'

    Ah, Justin, well that is your problem. You are a student.

    Contrary to what your parents may have told you every day, you are not the center of the universe, life is not fair, and you are not entitled to be handed a job as VP of some multinational and a brownstone in Manhattan upon commencement.

    You might have to actually work for ten years like your parents parents before you can save a downpayment, and you may have to settle for a starter home in the burbs or some run down neigborhood.

    By the way, housing prices are still relatively cheap in Canada. Try checking out prices in NY or London in a area of the city that RE agents would say meets their mantra of 'location location location'.
  63. B C from Canada writes: Smooth fan, statements like this are silly: 'Renting is a waste of money, you get ZERO return on it.'

    What matters is the net present value of the housing you are purchasing when measured against rents. It is that simple. Nowadays you are buying at a 50%-100% premium in some parts of the country. Buying is throwing money away since someone eventually gets burned, always, when asset trades at far more than its intrinsic value.
  64. bill k from Canada writes: newguy vancouver from VanCity, Canada writes: 'I have been wondering for a while when the mainstream media would be forced to report on the declines we have being seeing. Its funny, all this data (and much more data they are still avoiding talking about) has been written in detail on the 'Lets Imagine there is a Housing Crash' blog.

    As we know, real estate only increases in value with inflation - no more, no less. Therefore, every boom inevitably ends with a bust. The larger the run up, the farther the fall down.

    A lot of people are going to lose their shirts over this one, especially in Vancouver'

    The truth will be a bitter pill to swallow as the continued housing crash put more homes on the market without any buyers. Driving around the GTA there were many over houses and lots of for sale signs and a very limited sold signs. POP......what was that RE agents?
  65. chris ohenry from Toronto, Canada writes: Smooth Fan, I appreciate the advice, and I do understand the 'pride' in owning a house. I have 'pride' in owning a nice car, which I could afford to buy, but I feel that to get the kind of house we would be 'proud' of, in an area where you actually want to live, it's simply something not worth going into massive debt for.

    Sure, we could move out to the sticks, like ajax or scarborough, in the hope of upgrading in the future, closer and closer back to the desirable neighbourhoods. But why would I do that when we can live mid-town Toronto, right now, in a great house in a great area? Why put up with lost hours in traffic, suburban isolation and strip-mall hell just to own a home? The sacrifices far out-way the benefits in my eyes.

    There's something wrong when young professionals feel forced to live out in suburbia just to get on the property ladder. By the time they can afford a decent house in the city, they'll be too old to enjoy it anyway.

    There should be a healthy balance between owning and renting in a society. When everything is geared towards owning, people lose perspective on when it does and doesn't make sense.
  66. Steve . from Western Canada, Canada writes: Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't most of Eastern Canada buried up to thier armpits with snow while Western Canada made a deep freezer look like a tropical vacation during the first quarter of this year? So wouldn't you have to agree that during weather like that people don't tend to go house shopping? I think the CREA may be jumping the gun before the racers are even lining up. Just my opinion though. I'll wait and see what the figures look like for the next two quarters.
  67. Steve Not an Alberta Redneck from Calgary, Canada writes: Smooth Fan from toronto, Canada writes: 'Chris: You don't need 30% down to buy a property. As I stated earlier, you get a very good return for your primary residence. I used to rent for 3 years as well until I could put a descent make a descent downpayment. Renting is a waste of money, you get ZERO return on it.'

    I'm with Chris. In today's market, its foolish to get in with nothing down. You'll have negative equity in no time and the bank will come calling. Save your money and snap up a bargain after the recession takes a bite out of the market. Then you can pay down the principle quickly.

    The borrow all you can approach only works in the beginning of a bubble and we won't see that again for many years.
  68. JM Work from Canada writes: In these arguements its always quite easy to tell who the renters are and who the homeowners are.

    I hate to generalize because theres always exceptions, but usually renters rent because they have no other choice. They either cant afford to buy based on their income, have too much other debt including consumer debt, or have poor credit and cant find a lender.
  69. Dmitri Gorskin from Montreal, Canada writes: It is depend on from the value of immigration in this year.
    In December 2006 there were 157,000 foreign students in Canada - many from China, Korea, and the United States. The Canadian Bureau for International Education reports that the pool of international students in Canada could add as many as 30,000 skilled immigrants annually.Most of the Students - persons who would like to receive status of immigrant.
    The value of unemploiment in UK is 2.5%.
    6% is in Canada.Wnen immigrants understand, that
    here is not job or normal work, here is cold as in Russia they reimmigrate from country as soon as possible.From Pakistan,Chine in Canada and after 3 year to UK, USA.
    Pakistanien, indiens,chinies don't want to buy houses in coldest country in the world.
    1 million 160 035 person who immigrate from Canada for 1 year! It is one big city.
    http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo56a.htm
    So, governement have to increase immigration in 5 times! After this, we can not see any 'officially over' of the Housing boom.
  70. Oh Canada from Canada writes: Re doesn't go up forever, 20-30% correction will bring prices back down to true value in at least Toronto.
  71. Dick Nails from Canada writes: Every week there is a story like this one and the renters yap about how smart they are and the owners... we don't have to say nuthin'.

    I will re-repeat myself: Buy land, they ain't making any more. (and the last time I wrote that some pinhead here abouts missed the point entirely and disssed me; I didn't write it but you can find out who did by oogling it)

    And for you renters: freedom (from ownership) is just another word for nothing.
  72. Cowtown boy from Canada writes: As we know, real estate only increases in value with inflation - no more, no less. Therefore, every boom inevitably ends with a bust. The larger the run up, the farther the fall down.

    So when will it burst in Vancouver. My parents bought a house in the late 1940's for $6500 and sold it in 1964 for $11,900. Some 45 years later it's worth around 700K. So when will the bubble burst. It did for a bit back in the 80's but soon climbed back up. Real Estate is a long term investment that has never to my knowlwdge let anyone down. Short term maybe, but not over 10-30 years.
  73. B C from Canada writes: 'here is a huge sense of pride and accomplishment when you buy your first home which is hard to make tangible.'

    It must be worth a lot since people are chaining themselves to 40 year mortgages.... Lets see, 35 years old with 40 year mortgage. Let's call it freedom 75.
  74. Carl Hansen from Canada writes: There won't be a crash now. The world economy and Canada are just doing too well. For those of us renting maybe .05% interest rates will enable my $8.50 an hour self to buy a house. Other than that, sucks for you.
  75. Pete Kauchak, Green Tory from Cascadia, Canada writes: Geoff Virgo from Vancouver, BC, Canada writes: Miller may or may not be that, the point he was making is that a land transfer tax that Miller introduced to the Toronto market will not have any effect on the markets in Vancouver (who already has a higher transfer tax anyways), Edmonton or Calgary. True enough. Hopefully the Vancouver market crashes. I was thinking of moving out there.
  76. TNSFAN BOOKER from Toronto, Canada writes: Smooth, your comments seem to be relevent only if you're a homeowner who never paid for home-owners insurance (ie. you can afford to put down more than 25%) AND your household income is at least 6 figures AND your job is recession-proof. The fact of the matter is that most buyers (over the past 5 years) in Canada have been putting less than 5% down and taking on 40 year mortgages - this means that people with low income can participate in this whole 'home-ownership' fiasco. To add more fuel to the fire, those who 'profited' by flipping, are being greedy - they take their gains and re-leverage themselves again by buying more 'house' rather than paying down their debt. Chris Ohenry said it best - don't buy a house unless you can afford it (30% seems to be a reasonable downpayment to afford the cashflow on a mortgage). As far as homeownership (over anything longer than a 25 year mortgage)is concerned, carrying costs in the form of interest, property taxes, maintence, and closing costs (not to mention the headache of trying to sell to picky customers who slash your bid and only make conditional offers) is SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the liquidity and flexibility of renting. OK, sure the capital gain on a house is tax-free. But, assuming the home-owner is not a 'flipper', you need to discount that gain back 25-40 years. I know it's hard to compare apples with apples given all the unknown variables. So, why not bank cash now (ie. rent) and wait out the storm?
  77. Cowtown boy from Canada writes: It must be worth a lot since people are chaining themselves to 40 year mortgages.... Lets see, 35 years old with 40 year mortgage. Let's call it freedom 75.

    Most people after 10 or 15 years will have more income and will be paying that mortgage off faster. I originally had a 25 year one and paid it off in 16 years
  78. B C from Canada writes: 'usually renters rent because they have no other choice. They either cant afford to buy based on their income, have too much other debt including consumer debt, or have poor credit and cant find a lender.'

    That's why anyone who can afford to buy, can get amazing places to rent at a fraction of the cost of ownership. There is a huge pool of rental accommodation and no renters for upscale properties nowadays. At the low end, though, renting is tight which is unfortunate.
  79. Silent Majority from Canada writes: People have to view housing as an asset and not an investment. Don't bet your retirement on the value of your home.
  80. Mick H. from Canada writes: One factor that hasn't been mentioned yet is that virtually all new construction is either townhouses or shoulder-to-shoulder monster homes. There used to be a time when middle-aged people would 'move up' to a bigger house, but not any more, because the new houses are all house and no lot. Who wants to move out of a medium-sized house with a nice backyard into a monster home with a lot the size of a doormat? People are staying put. Driving through those new subdivisions with a wall of squished-together monster homes on either side is like driving through a canyon, it's claustrophobia city. Sure, SOME people might like those monster homes with the tiny lots, but most people don't, and that majority is being shut out of the 'buying up' market. Look how many cars there are in the driveways of those monster homes, i.e. 4, 5 or 6. These are not single-family dwellings. There are multiple adults living in there, perhaps communes or extended families making a communal purchase. If you want a new house with a backyard bigger than the kitchen, your outta luck. Too bad the developers didn't do a survey before they put so much money into building things that hardly anybody wants. 'Nice big house you're offering for $325,000, but too bad it doesn't come with a backyard.' What are they thinking?
  81. Silent Majority from Canada writes: Cowtown Boy,
    Agreed. If it takes more than 15 to 20 years to pay off a mortgage then, in my opinion, it is not worth buying.
  82. Cowtown boy from Canada writes: There is a huge pool of rental accommodation and no renters for upscale properties nowadays.

    Maybe were you live, but out west, there are some places that the vacancy rate on rental properties is less than 1%.
  83. Steve . from Western Canada, Canada writes: I'm missing something here. Why is renting so smart? I rented for years, ALOT of years, because I didn't make much and saving for the down payment was hard to do with kids. I bought my home 8 years ago for 80Grand and it's worth over 225 Grand now. I've paid my mortgage down to personal loan level so all the equity ends up in my pocket. Why is renting smart when my mortgage payments are half of what my rent was?
  84. Helping Save Canada from Hamiltonia, Canada writes: One of redeeming features of the free-market system is that is has the abiltiy to self-regulate, e.g. supply/demand theory. I adhere to the school of thought that we will be entering a long period of economic correction which will be adversely impacted by our damaged ecosystem. When the primary objective of people is a supersized, half-empty house, granite countertops and a 2 ton gas guzzler, it doesn't take much to tell we are headed for a period of challenging adjustments.
  85. J Kooman from Canada writes:

    Buying a house with 12% down is no different from making margin call with only 12% of cash to cover the stock value. The leverage is about 8 times.

    When you win, you win big; but when you lose, you lose it all.

    Unless you know when to sell and leave the market, you always get buried during a down turn.

    (And there were down turns in real estate.)
    ...
  86. Joseph Whistle from Canada writes: The question is for people looking to buy, how much discount should they request when making an offer? If you want a certain house and don't want someone else to buy, but you know it's overpriced given the current jitters and rumors, what level is safe to low-ball at?
    And for sellers, how much are you willing to reduce your price? Did you plan to move on in life to something or somewhere else, and really want to sell, and are you willing to knock off 10 percent of the already industry standard 5-10% below listing price?
    Or are you going to stick it out, refuse to sell until you see another uptrend?
    Perhaps is some economical stable areas, you'll see less people offering their houses up for sale because they want no part of selling their house at a discount..