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Markets brace for earnings

Here's Allan Robinson's At The Bell which you'll find in Thursday's newspaper:

Some of Canada's largest companies are scheduled to report their second-quarter results today as earnings season picks up pace, and some good results would be welcome news for investors.

WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS?

A slowdown in the resources sector is just under way, but the oil, fertilizer and mining companies are forecast to report strong profits.

By the end of this week 27 S&P/TSX companies will have reported, but then the pace will accelerate, peaking in the two weeks starting from July 28 when 136 firms – accounting for nearly half of the S&P/TSX capitalization – will report, according to CIBC World Markets Inc.

Among the companies due to release results today are Suncor Energy Inc., Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Nova Chemicals Corp., Teck Cominco Ltd., Celestica Inc., EnCana Corp., Petro-Canada and Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

Since mid-June, the S&P/TSX has declined almost 10 per cent from its record close of 15,073, “the normal definition of a full-fledged market correction,” said Peter Buchanan and Meny Grauman, economists with CIBC World Markets. The Canadian market is one of the few markets in the world that has managed to stay out of bear market territory.

Conventional wisdom is that the stock market tends to perform better during earnings season as companies release the bad news ahead of the quarterly results to “set the bar low,” the economists said. “Lending some support to that view, the S&P/TSX's total return (dividends paid and capital appreciation) has averaged 2.5 per cent during reporting periods over the last eight years, compared to a roughly flat return in intervening periods.”

And the second-quarter earnings should be gangbusters. Profit for the S&P/TSX 60 during the second quarter is forecast to be up 19.4 per cent with a gain for 2008 estimated at 27.9 per cent, said John Butters, director of earnings research for Thomson Reuters. Second-quarter earnings for the energy sector are forecast to rise 60 per cent, while the materials group is expected to report 25-per-cent profit growth, he said. The only other standout sector is expected to be technology, with forecast earnings up 66 per cent.

Most of the remaining sectors are expected to report year-over-year declines or single-digit growth rates, Mr. Butters said.

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